To Trade or Not to Trade? That is the Question!

trading-post

by Michael Chastain – just “lil ole” me

Whether tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune when trading up, or to field offers from the sea of GMs wanting the extra contract year and by playing them against each other get the most from them by trading down! To think, to plan; to plan, perchance to dream, of what trades may come as we shuffle around on draft weekend, Must give us pause. Tis but part of the calamity that makes us all lifelong Falcons fans! Sorry, I was stuck somewhere in the late 1500s for a moment. Back to 2017…

Trade up! Really!? Is there a Julio Jones quality player in this draft to trade up for? Yes! Myles Garrett is one such player. Is he worth the cost to trade up to get him? Not just NO, but H. E. double hockey sticks NO! How did it turn out for Coach Ditka when he traded his entire draft class plus the following years 1st and 3rd for Ricky Williams? Or, when Washington traded how many first round picks (3) for RGIII? History says do not do it! There is a reason that NFL also means Not For Long. It only takes one play or moment to end a career. Even though Easter is almost here there is no need to put all of even multiple picks into one prospect! Not even prospects with high 1st round grades are guaranteed to become stars or even solid starters. Just ask Todd Marinovich or DE Jamal Anderson!

EZ

Value is first concern…

Patience pays off! Have you ever gone to an auction and found something you wanted so much that you decided to bid on it. You get super excited when you win the item! Then you go to pay for it and you think “How much did I just pay for that?” Stay away from the “Man crush” syndrome! It is very easy to fall so in love with a prospect that feelings get hurt if they go to another team. Then the second guessing starts up and we begin to lose faith in those we trust. Build a list of prospects that will fit and perform well with the current team structure. Maybe a prospect, which is a good fit, with a second round grade is still on the board in the 4th round. Walla! You just drafted great value! But, if that 4th round pick would have been traded away to move up in the second round to select a player that was coveted, then you lose that extra value! Only reach for a player when there are no reasonable offers on the board to add value by trading down!

Trading down in the draft does not always maximize value! Some factors to take into consideration when trading down include: what prospects are currently available, how many spots down are you willing to move, what is the return (are you adding picks or just moving up in later rounds?), how many prospects with later round projections have been identified as positive fits that can help the team be successful, and how many picks does the trading partner have? The final factor is not about greed, but with willingness to give-up draft picks in a trade! Generally speaking people with greater means have an increased willingness to spend. Those with less tend to be more careful about how they spend. The following teams are expected to draft a quarterback: Browns, 49ers, Cardinals, Texans, Chiefs, Chargers, Jets, Bills, and Saints. Of those teams the 49ers and the Browns have 10 and 11 draft picks respectively. Here are two possible scenarios that are low risk high reward for trading out of the 31st pick to quarterback needy teams.

Scenario #1

fish

“Gimme all your plug and play OGs.”                        “Go fish!”

Cleveland has picks 1, 12, and 33. They have a grand total of 11 picks in the draft, the most of any team. Cleveland also has a need at quarterback. Most of the quarterbacks in this draft are considered to be developmental, but that has not stopped Cleveland from selecting a quarterback in the first round in previous drafts. However they currently have a much better front office than in the past. There is not a quarterback worthy of the number 1 or number 12 pick. They will draft DE Myles Garrett with the number 1 pick. They will most likely draft a DB with the number 12 pick. They could trade back from 12 to later in the first round, but it is doubtful that they will use the pick on a quarterback. Cleveland is very interested in a fifth year option on any quarterback they might select in draft this year. They have identified two quarterbacks that they like, Deshone Kizer and Davis Webb. Cleveland is also going to want to jump ahead of New Orleans who has a 38 year old quarterback. Evidently they do not see Garrett Grayson as the future if they are not willing to allow him to be the back-up. Why else would they sign 30 year old Chase Daniels? Look for New Orleans to draft a quarterback with the 32nd pick to learn for a year or maybe two behind Drew Brees before he retires. If we go by the numbers on the draft chart, worst case is Atlanta gets Cleveland’s second pick in the 5th (pick 175) to move back to pick 33. If Atlanta gets a premium for the fifth year option then Cleveland could give-up as high as their 4th rounder, pick 108.

Scenario #2

San Francisco has picks number 2 and 34. In all they have 10 picks in the draft. Here again we come back to teams with more picks have an easier time parting with them. Brian Hoyer is not the future of the 49er franchise. New Head Coach Shanahan wants to give a young quarterback a year to learn while Hoyer takes the lumps. He will have John Lynch call up Tommy Dimitroff about that 31st pick. Again worst case by the numbers this trade is worth San Francisco’s second pick in the 4th round (pick 143) and a swap of picks in the 5th round. Atlanta would move up from pick 174 to pick 161. If Atlanta gets a premium for the fifth year option, and to jump ahead of Cleveland and New Orleans, then San Francisco could give-up as high as their 4th rounder, pick 109 and an additional day three pick. A windfall for Atlanta would be to acquire the 49er’s 3rd round pick to move back to pick 34. Lynch is an inexperienced General Manager who may be willing to sell part of the farm to get the player his coach wants!

stamps

Quinn’s been saving.

Both of these trades could potentially add a draft pick for the Falcons with very little risk of another team selecting the prospect that Atlanta would select with pick 31. The biggest factor will be how many quarterback are still on the board when pick 31 is on the clock. The second factor to take into consideration is Coach Quinn’s short draft history. In the 2016 he showed no fear selecting a player with a high second round grade in the middle of the first round. If the top player on his list is on the board there may not be any trading back.

What are your thoughts on the two trade scenarios?

How risky would it be to move farther down in the second round in a trade with one of the other quarterback needy teams?

What players would you be ok with the team trading up in the draft to select and at what cost?

Should Atlanta be more like Green Bay and refrain from draft weekend trading?

Are draft weekend trades more exciting or frustrating?

Are there any players on the team that you would not mind being traded away for a draft pick? If so what round pick would you want in return?

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390 thoughts on “To Trade or Not to Trade? That is the Question!

  1. Grits Blitz

    jlom- May your surgery go smoothly and your recovery full and swift! Best check your pre-invoice to see it’s all paid-in-full…with The Master Physician.

    Reply
          1. just "little ole" me

            Thanks Arno! If everything heals back like it’s suppose to I will be good as new!

  2. Flo-Ri-Duh

    Falcons get in line to work out Michigan OT Eric Magnuson. Magnuson was a 1st team All Big Team and three year starter for Michigan at both OT and OG. Surprisingly he was not invited to the combine. (sportingnews.com)

    Reply
  3. Flo-Ri-Duh

    Jets are looking to trade Sheldon Richardson (DT) and former NFL GM Mark Dominik thinks they want a 2nd Rd pick…. but he believes they will settle for a 3rd/4th Rd pick. Any takers? There’s a reason he is not garnering much interest. Naw – I’ll draft one without his bad attitude and other flaws. The former 1st Rd pick had 1.5 sacks and 38 TKL’s in 2016. (pro-football reference.com)

    About the only trade I see possible for the Falcons is a Levitre type trade for an OG that will replaced as a starter and relegated to the bench. For example Kevin Zeitler (OG) was signed to a blockbuster deal by the Browns. They now have 6 OG’s under contract. The guy being relegated to the bench is John Greco, age 32 and ROG in 2016. Pro football Focus referred to him as a “steady presence – reliable & versatile”. By the way, the last time I checked Austin Pasztor (OG/RT) is still a UFA and IF the Falcons get any cap space they could sign him as he is better than decent and can play both OT and OG.

    Reply
      1. Flo-Ri-Duh

        A comment on the above link – late Rd possibilities for the Falcons – I really like Aviante Collins’ (OT/OG) skill set and athleticism. Under DQ & Co’s development program this guy would be a future starter – probably by 2018 if not sooner.

        Reply
    1. Dewey

      I know Chuck Smith really likes him. I see him as a pass rush specialist only. Seems a waste of a 1st round pick, but we do need pass rushers.

      Reply
  4. Dewey

    A little over a week away from draft time, Falcons will be finishing up their visits soon, taking next week to polish off their draft board/strategy.
    A few points to ponder….

    2016 Rookie sack leaders
    1-Joey Bosa, OLB, Round#1, pick#3 (9.5 sacks)
    2-Yannick Ngakoue, DE, Round#3, pick#6, 69th overall (8 sacks)
    3-Leonard Floyd, OLB, Round#1, pick#9 (7 sacks)
    4-DeForest Buckner, DE, Round#1, pick#7 (6 sacks)
    5-Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Round#2, pick#1, 32nd overall (5.5 sacks)
    6-Noah Spence, OLB, Round#2, pick#8, 39th overall (5.5 sacks)
    7-Maliek Collins, DT, Round#3, pick#4, 67th overall (5 sacks)

    Point being made here, if we want a pass rusher that’s going to contribute anything this season, we’re probably going to need to do it in the 1st 2 rounds, as there probably won’t be someone who can contribute meaningful pressure by the time our 3rd round pick (#95) comes around.

    Reply
    1. Flo-Ri-Duh

      Dewey – I agree. As it is the Falcons draft at the tail end of each Rd – so by the time the Falcons’ 3rd Rd (95th) comes around it will be a slim chance of them getting a meaningful Pass Rusher. If it’s not Lamp (OG) in the 1st Rd it will be DEFENSE – and next up will be a Pass Rusher.

      Reply
  5. Dewey

    A little over a week away from draft time, Falcons will be finishing up their visits soon, taking next week to polish off their draft board/strategy.
    A few points to ponder….continued

    As of right now, the way our team is constructed, we are only $35 million (estimated of course, probably off by a million or 2) under the salary cap for 2018. I say “only” $35 million, because these major contributors are not under contract for 2018 as of yet…
    LT-Jake Mathews
    FS-Ricardo Allen
    RB-DeVontae Freeman
    WR-Taylor Gabriel
    DT-Ra’Shede Hagman
    DT-Dontari Poe
    DE-Adrian Clayborn

    Would be nice to have at least 1 or 2 replacements on hand just in case. Coincidentally, that’s 6 positions (7 players) and 6 draft picks.

    Reply
    1. Flo-Ri-Duh

      Predicting The Future: (info by spottrac.com)
      Jake Matthews (OT) – to get an extension or franchise tagged in ’18. Possible UFA in ’19.
      Ricardo Allen (FS) – will be a RFA (restricted free agent) again in ’18 – tagged again and possible UFA in ’19.
      DeVonta Freeman (RB) – TD will sign him to a lucrative deal – 4 yrs $7-$9 mill.
      Taylor Gabriel (WR) – Signed his tender of $2.75 mill for ’17. His production in ’17 decides his future with the Falcons.
      Ra’Shede Hageman (DT) – Same as with Gabe – ’17 production will decide his future with Falcons.
      Dontari Poe (NT/DT) – Ditto above – production will determine his future in ’18. He’s on a “show me” contract.
      Adrian Clayborn (DE) – Often injured & ’17 is his “show me” year.
      ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
      Prediction –
      Jake Matthews (OT) gets tagged for ’18
      Ricardo Allen (FS) – being a RFA in ’18 he will get a 3rd Rd tender in ’18 as he’s a cheap contract. Also see a FS drafted in ’17.
      DeVonta Freeman (RB) – the “squeaky wheel” is signed to a 4 Yr. $7.5 mill per Yr. contract – a bit rich for me but that’s TD’s MO.
      Taylor Gabriel (WR) – if he has a great year he’s GONE to another team for a higher contract – if not he’s a 1 Yr $3 mill extension for the Falcons
      Ra’Shede Hageman (DT) – I expect this big man to show big improvement in ’17 and get a new contract: $4-$5 mill per yr 4 yrs.
      Dontari Poe (DT/NT) – Hopefully he has a healthy & successful ’17 season – if so he’s re-signed to 4 Yr. $10 mill per season deal
      Adrian Clayborn (DE) – Unfortunately oft injured & has a $5.4 mill cap hit in ’17. Expect his replacement to come in this draft.

      Reply
      1. Dewey

        2018 will be Mathews 5th year option year, which the Falcons need to make a decision on soon. Read where the number will be a little over $12 million for that one year.
        Devon gets at least $7mil.
        Hageman at least $4mil
        Poe $10mil
        Gabriel $3mil
        By my math, that’s $34 million of the existing $35 million gone. Plus, that original $35 million didn’t include 2017 draft choices yet.
        And they still want to extend MR.
        This is why you looked to trade Truffaut when you had the chance. This is also why you draft for the future, so you’re not “stuck” having to pay out big money contracts.
        In my mind, if the Falcons were smart, their draft targets would be, DE, DT, WR, RB, FS, OT. No particular order. Not necessarily for starters this year, but for potential starters in 2018.

        Reply
        1. Flo-Ri-Duh

          Dewey – As long as they have TD money will be tight. He LOVES to re-sign “his” guys to overpriced contracts – Trufant’s contract was ridiculously overpriced. TD negotiating skills are severely lacking.

          Reply
  6. Dewey

    A little over a week away from draft time, Falcons will be finishing up their visits soon, taking next week to polish off their draft board/strategy.
    A few points to ponder….continued

    Vic Beasley had 15.5 sacks, deflected 2 passes, caused 6 fumbles and altered quite a few passes with pressure. However, he made 39 tackles in 16 games. Take away his sacks, and that’s around 24 tackles, which is just 1.5 tackles per game. I know we rotate, and the numbers against the pass are great, but don’t we need just a little bit more overall?

    Reply
  7. Dewey

    Of all the players we have worked out so far, which player(s) would you like to see us talk to that we haven’t yet (that we know of).
    I have 2. It’s a bit disappointing that we haven’t met with TJ Watt(DE) or Dan Feeney(OG).

    Reply
    1. Flo-Ri-Duh

      Dewey – Speculating here but I think DQ favors Rivers over Watt. The fact that Watt had three injuries in three seasons – two knee injuries / surgeries is troubling. I don’t know why they haven’t paid more attention to Feeney but doubt they would take him in the 1st Rd if a coveted Pass Rusher is on their board.

      Reply
  8. John Waynesworld

    Question for the Cage…. If after watching the last college football season (and forgetting all the offseason scout estimations and criticisms), wouldn’t we be absolutely thrilled to be able to get OLB Zach Cunningham at #31? I know the UGA O-Line was substandard in 2016 but Zach single-handedly destroyed the Bulldogs like a man among boys. It was one of the most impressive defensive performances I have seen in years against UGA.

    We have a hole at WLB…he is projected as a WLB…why wouldn’t we jump to take him, given the Falcons’ PR line saying they are “flexible” at #31.

    Reply
    1. Dewey

      JWW,

      All I can offer is, Quinn has very specific traits he’s looking for in players, and some of those traits differ at different positions. I wish we were privy to what those traits were, it would make speculating a little less frustrating.

      Reply
      1. John Waynesworld

        Agreed. I was just looking back during that time, before the yearly “expert” lambasting.

        If I recall, LB Benardrick McKinney was desparaged in a similar way before the 2015 draft and he fell from a top 20 pick to #43. He did pretty well in his rookie season before exploding in his second year with 129 tackles and 5 sacks. He will likely be on the Pro Bowl watch list in 2017.

        Reply
      2. Chop Buster

        Quinn said traits are naturally tough and competitive. Ya can’t teach these (as Smitty thought), gotta be inherent IMO.

        Reply
    2. just "little ole" me

      JWW – Cunningham’s two big weaknesses are tackling and pass rush. Tackling is not near the concern that it would have been under the previous regime. DQ has said on a number of occasions that he can teach tackling. It is the unteachable abilities that I believe DQ looks for in his players. Campbell will start the season at WLB. He is faster that Cunningham and has a year in the system. If Cunningham is still on the board at 31 and is selected by the Falcons then I would expect him to play SLB on 1st and 2nd down and also spell Campbell at WLB in the Nickel when needed. The question must be ask once again will DQ use pick 31 on a player who is not on the field all three downs. I can see Cunningham becoming a 3 down player, just not for Atlanta in 2017.

      I also agree with Flo as I do not think Cunningham will still be on the board when pick 31 is on the clock!

      Reply
    1. Flo-Ri-Duh

      Couldn’t get this link to work so I will list the players they want targeted mid-Rd for falcons:
      #1) Deatrich Wise (DE), Arkansas
      A strong, physical lineman, big hands and explosive power. “Wise has a very high ceiling as a pass-rusher” Todd McShay. 6’5″ 274 lb.
      …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
      #2) Larry Ungunjobi (DT), N.C. Charlotte
      Started EVERY game in his four season career. The massive 6’3″ 305 lb. was consistently productive: at lest 9.5 TFL each of his 4 seasons and a combined 125 TKL for heis jr/sr. seasons. “He is a rawer version of Sheldon Rankins who was drafted 1st Rd #12 in 2014.” NFL.com analyst Lance Zierlein.
      …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
      #3) Xavier Woods (FS), Louisiana Tech
      A first-team All-Conference USA pick for the last three years – makes big plays in the defensive backfield. 14 INT’s and 2 pick 6’s in career.
      Displays the kind of hands and ball tracking skills few safeties possess. He’s also a physical athlete at 5’11” 197 lb. as evidenced by his 20 TFL, 6 forced fumbles and 4 Sacks with the Bulldogs.
      ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
      #4) Jessemen Dunker (OG), Tenn State
      A left tackle in college, Dunker will move to guard at the next level. His performance at the Sr. Bowl helped his stock.
      DraftAnalyst.com Tony Pauline, ” Dunker has next level traits and was strong, explosive and fierce at Mobile (Sr. Bowl), an above average athlete with good speed (4.98 40 at combine) that could be a good fit in Falcons’ outside zone scheme. He’s raw and will need some developing befoe working his way to the top of the depth chart.”
      …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
      #5) Ahkello Witherspoon (CB), Colorado
      ‘Spoon checks a lot of the boxes DQ looks for in a CB. 6’3″ with 33″ arms gives him impressive length and he has blazing speed (4.45 40). Notched 23 passes defensed in 2016 (most in nation). Needs to improve his tackling and over all physicality to become a starting NFL CB – which will require DQ’s school of development.

      Reply
  9. Dewey

    Going by my earlier post of players who contribute heavily, that are not under contract for 2018 (Poe, Allen, Hageman, Gabriel, Freeman, Mathews, Clayborn) I come up with draft targets of, DT, DE, FS, OT, RB, WR.
    Now going by the list on walterfootball.com of players we have met with, our draft could look something like this…..
    1st-Budda Baker, FS-would be instant starter and upgrade over Allen. Making Allen either expendable or cheaper for 2018.
    2nd-Tarrell Basham, DE or Tanoh Kpassagnon, DE-Basham would be a RE/LEO, whatever you want to call it, who would probably slide to LE on passing downs. Tanoh could possibly start at LE, and possibly slide inside on passing downs. I would take Basham.
    3rd-Dalvin Tomlinson, DT-Dalvin would be in the rotation at DT and be insurance should we need to let Poe, Hageman or both go.
    4th-Marlon Mack, RB or Kareem Hunt, RB. Both bigger backs (Mack-5’11”, 213, Hunt-5’10”, 216), but for Mack, that doesn’t necessarily equate to more power. Both are zone-scheme fits. Insurance if Devonta’s crew gets too greedy. I would take Hunt.
    5th-Julie’n Davenport, OT-needs refining and maybe add 10-15lbs. Project, who if he works out, could replace Mathews or allow Mathews to move inside to G or C.
    6th-no pick. Thank you very much Thomas Dimitroff
    7th-Robert Davis, WR-big, fast, raw. Needs work on route running and coming back to the ball. A year on the practice squad and then see what we have.

    Reply
  10. Hamad Meander

    Waiting for the NFL draft is more agonizing than waiting for Christmas as a 7 year old. The disappointment of the draft, however, has usually far exceeded any disappointment of Christmas. If I find myself smiling on April 30th as much as my daughter smiled when she got her iPad mini, I will be elated.

    Reply
    1. just "little ole" me

      HM – if your daughter is 7 then you are braver than I am. My 7 just turned 8 y/o son received a much less expensive android tablet. On the other hand my wife was the one who got the IPad mini. Hopefully she doesn’t leave it on top of the running washing machine while she is folding clothes like she did her previous tablet that vibrated off and destroyed the screen!

      Reply
      1. Hamad Meander

        Not sure how brave I am, but I will say she has been pretty careful with her tablet. We bought a very cheap, yet sturdy case for it. But I will say her smile on Christmas day is the same smile I want after this draft.

        Reply
    1. JB Falcon

      And the pain will diminish over time. Feeling will steal the good out of you life, IF you let them. Move on!

      Reply
  11. just "little ole" me

    For anyone interested here’s the Falcons 2017 schedule:
    Week 1 SEP 10 1:00 PM AT BEARS
    Week 2 SEP 17 8:30 PM VS PACKERS (Sunday)
    Week 3 SEP 24 1:00 PM AT LIONS
    Week 4 OCT 01 1:00 PM VS BILLS
    Week 5 OCT 08 BYE
    Week 6 OCT 15 1:00 PM VS DOLPHINS
    Week 7 OCT 22 8:30 PM AT PATRIOTS (Sunday)
    Week 8 OCT 29 1:00 PM AT JETS
    Week 9 NOV 05 1:00 PM AT PANTHERS
    Week 10 NOV 12 4:25 PM VS COWBOYS
    Week 11 NOV 20 8:30 PM AT SEAHAWKS (Monday)
    Week 12 NOV 26 1:00 PM VS BUCCANEERS
    Week 13 DEC 03 1:00 PM VS VIKINGS
    Week 14 DEC 07 8:25 PM VS SAINTS (Thursday)
    Week 15 DEC 18 8:30 PM AT BUCCANEERS (Monday)
    Week 16 DEC 24 1:00 PM AT SAINTS
    Week 17 DEC 31 1:00 PM VS PANTHERS

    link to schedule on nfl.com:
    http://www.nfl.com/schedules/2017/REG/Falcons

    Reply
    1. John Waynesworld

      Thanks, JLOM.

      The schedule looks fine except the bye week. Only 2 or 3 chances of getting a cold outdoor game. Still, the schedule makers couldn’t figure out how to use the bye week to offset either a Sunday night, Monday night or Thursday night game. Considering we have 5 of those types of games….they even didn’t try.

      Reply
      1. Flo-Ri-Duh

        The Falcons get a bye after week 5 (would have been better after week 7 or 8) and they play the Pats on the road…. embarrass those pricks in their own home – oh YEAhhhh!

        Another observation – the Falcons don’t even play a division game until week 9 when they play the Panties. They finish the year with FOUR straight division games in a row – with one being a thursday game vs Aint’s followed by a monday game vs Bucs – leading to two short rest/practice weeks. Who made this schedule – Tom Brady?

        The “experts” claim this will be an easier schedule than last year for the Byrds? I don’t see that. Meanwhile the Pats DO get an easier schedule. Don’t tell me this is a rigged system favoring certain teams.

        Reply
        1. just "little ole" me

          Flo – I noticed that Thursday night game back to back with the Monday night game. So we get a short week to prep for Saints then a long week to prep for Bucs, then a short week again to prep to the second game against the Saints. I just wonder why the NFL would give tow short prep weeks against the same division rival? I can understand having two short prep weeks, but put them against non division teams!

          Reply
          1. Flo-Ri-Duh

            jlom – Sounds like a conspiracy theory to me…. what doen’t make sense is waiting until week #9 to have your 1st divisional game and then having four in a row at the end of the schedule.

  12. Flo-Ri-Duh

    Researchers to look for CTE evidence in Hernandez’s brain. Right – murdering those people was not his fault – he was brain damaged. Todays society ALWAYS screams it’s not my fault – I did NOTHING wrong – it’s your fault! (ajc.com)

    It’s a known fact that Hernandez was a thug street gang member going bacy to age 15 – probably before he got this “alledged” brain damage.

    Reply
    1. Hamad Meander

      Is there a punk/thug gene they can test for? I have NO sympathy for Aaron Hernandez and am glad the State of Connecticut does not have to pay for his jail space any longer. Of course, they probably will be sued for not protecting him from himself……..but couldn’t then they be sued by his victims for the same?

      Reply
      1. Flo-Ri-Duh

        HM – Anyone can sue for anything any time – but will they win? D.C. is neck deep in crooked lawyers – in Congress and lobbyists. That’s what I call “the swamp”.

        Reply
  13. Dewey

    Just finished listening to a rather disturbing interview on 92.9 with Thomas Dimitroff. It was actually a good interview until the very end. When asked, “without naming names, is there a player or two that you would be very excited, jumping up and down, to get at #31?”, Dimitroff answered by going into a 1 minute speech about the thought process in trading up into the early twenties or even the teens. Had he been asked that specific question, I wouldn’t have minded so much, but to go off in that direction given the question he was asked sends chills up my spine.

    I’m sure it will be replayed a few times today. Sometimes they have these interviews available on their website. If anyone else heard it or gets to hear it, I’d love to get your perspective on it.

    Reply
    1. John Waynesworld

      I heard it too, Dewey. He was all over the place, understandably so. Trade up…down…stay pat. I always look for Dim to give something away. I did notice when Dimitroff said (when asked what he’ll do the morning of the Thursday Draft).. “We don’t even pick until around 10 p.m.” That could possibly mean they will wait until late in the evening and then field offers to trade back and in fact they have no intention of trading up. That’s me, though.

      Another thing that Dimitroff says alot that doesn’t ring authentic is how he “likes to be active” in the draft, always mentioning his big moves UP in the Draft in the past. From what I remember I could say that Dimitroff only moves up when we have a full compliment of Draft picks and he never moves down unless he needs to recoup a previously lost pick. Are there any times this wasn’t true?

      Reply
      1. Dewey

        JWW,

        I’d need to do some research, but your hypothesis on Dimitroff’s trading habits sound true enough. I really hope we don’t trade up, but the intensity with which we have evaluated Lamp leads me to believe we are willing to do whatever it takes to land him, or at the very least, we are evaluating to see if Lamp is truly worth giving away assets to acquire.

        Reply
    2. Flo-Ri-Duh

      Dewey _ I stated earlier that IF the ‘Phins pass on Forrest Lamp (OG) at #22 AND the Seahawks pass at #26 I could see the Falcons moving ahead of the Packers (at #29) by giving up their #4 (136th) to take Lamp. That’s a lot of ifs. If you look at the trade chart it should take more than a 4th Rd pick to move ahead of the Packers (perhaps a 4th & 5th) but sometimes teams are willing to settle for less if they’re convinced their guy will still be there at #31. (I see the Cowboys priorities as DE edge, S & CB) The possibility of all this happening is slim…. but it could happen. I would be OK with that as I believe by the time the Falcons pick in the 4th the talent level will be way down. IF this is done it will be done with DQ’s blessing…. TD plays the big shot but he’s not the final say so (my opinon & Arthur Blank’s…. as stated when he hired DQ.) As for moving up in to the low 20’s I wouldn’t be for that…. too expensive.

      Reply
  14. Flo-Ri-Duh

    According to Leadbelly Falcons are “looking” to move UP from 31st spot. Supposedly TD has stated that there should be “ample” opportunity to move up into the 20’s to land a “handful” of players they have targeted. TD says “there are some interesting opportunities….. whoa big boy YOU ARE NOT IN CHARGE!

    Guess they could trade with Packers to move from 31st to 29th (that would be in the 20’s -right?) and would require them to give up at least their 4th Rd pick. Unfortunately I see no reason why the Packers would do that as they’re after the same guys the Falcons want – one being Forrest Lamp.

    Reply
    1. just "little ole" me

      Flo – I may be dreaming, but, I hope it is just bait for other teams to chew on to make them consider the possibility. Or, to help drive up the price for teams wanting to trade up to pick 31.

      Reply
  15. Flo-Ri-Duh

    Bulldawg Fan Alert – The annual G-Day game is this saturday! 1st chance to look at this top 5 ranked recruiting class…. lots of “big uglies” for the OL

    Reply
  16. Grits Blitz

    Logically, (and for a final time) if Lamp is head & shoulders above all other OGs and any other 30 teams ahead of Atlanta has a serious need for O line improvement (in their trench), he will NOT still be available at 31. Not going to be delusional wishing and hoping it weren’t so!
    If DQ (not TD) believes it’s so important to burn add. draft choices to trade up to get him at any price, then best be looking at #10-#13 to leapfrog Redskins and Bucs to be safe as both of them may be in Lamp’s market…

    Reply
    1. Flo-Ri-Duh

      Grits – I’m holding you to this prediction that Lamp will go at #10 or #13. All depends on what a team’s priorities are – not necessarily OL. I do agree that the chances are good that Lamp will go before #31…. ‘Phins at #22 being a possibility.

      Reply
      1. Grits Blitz

        Flo – You must have misread my post as I did not and will not make such a prediction Lamp will go 10-13. I just do know, as I thought everyone interested would know, the NFL Network has had their gurus state in their mock drafts Lamp would likely be going to Redskins or Bucs. Some teams overlook positional needs and opt for BPA so -in that case- that becomes the team’s priority…

        Reply
        1. Dewey

          Grits,

          You never know what’s going to happen in the draft. I don’t know where Lamp will go, but if all of the “draft experts” are correct, and there’s 2 or 3 OG’s that are head and shoulders above the rest, then there very well could be a mini-run on the position, regardless of teams “priorities”. If Lamp goes early (top 15 or so), that could cause a team to grab Feeney or Dawkins later in the 1st for fear they won’t be available in the 2nd.

          Incidentally, I don’t see RG as our top priority. We have 3 players in camp now vying for that position. RG was our weakest spot on the oline last season and we were a top ranked offense, so what’s to stop that from happening again? I would like an upgrade, but maybe the status-quo will be good enough. I believe the Falcons may be thinking the same way. The “experts” generally agree the top 4 OG’s are Lamp, Feeney, Dawkins, Johnson. We have met with Lamp 4 times, we haven’t met wit aNY of the othe 3. That tells me, though we are very interested in Lamp, maybe even enough to trade up if necessary, we are not putting such a priority on the position that we are beating the bushes for every possible prospect to upgrade the position. So, if we stay at #31 and Lamp is gone, then the position might not be addressed until much later with a fringe prospect/project.

          Reply
          1. Grits Blitz

            Dewey – Absolutely agree. Never said Lamp MUST be our #1…at any cost. What I would welcome would be a major upgrade at both OG positions.
            Burning add. draft choices to get Lamp seems counterproductive when we, in reality and contrary to expert opinions in the media, still have multiple holes to fill/upgrades to make on the team, thereby needing more, not less, quality players for the present and future.
            I’m all for whoever DQ selects (even if it’s DB again), but would hope this draft begins an ongoing process of seriously addressing the trenches (in this and every draft in the future). We lost far too many battles last year in the trenches last season and that, no doubt, contributed to a pattern that continued in the S.B.’s 2nd half!

          2. just "little ole" me

            GB – I am glad you will be OK with a #1 selection of a DB. I believe that DQ has his eye on some of the top DBs in this class if they fall to us. I am looking for a safety in round one and CB Sidney Jones or CB Fabian Moreau in round two if either fall that far. I think Lamp is just the back-up plan in the first round. I could be wrong.

        2. Flo-Ri-Duh

          Grits – Oh I get it – you are going by the plethora of mock drafts. I’m mostly seeing the ‘Phins, Seahawks & Packers going for Lamp but I have seen one or two for the ‘Skins. I have not seen the Bucs. The fun thing about the draft is any thing can happen.

          Reply
  17. Grits Blitz

    Wonder if anybody still believes TD doesn’t wield great/huge influence/input with DQ? Yes, DQ is in position to have the “final approval”, but I have still seen no meaningful (and verifiable) evidence to date (other than co. line rhetoric) DQ goes into a closet and makes all decisions by himself. Believe he’s an astute evaluator of talent, but still relies heavily upon, intently listens to, and probably follows TD’s private recommendations more than we know. (That’s the key – we don’t “really” know and never will – being on the outside just speculating as the co. line is always available for anyone wanting to buy it.)
    When the blessed day comes we are finally rid of Rasputin as advisor in any capacity and hire a legit GM, then we’ll be an organizational FO force to be reckoned with for decades to come… like the Patriots…as we already have the right HC!

    Reply
    1. Flo-Ri-Duh

      Grits – I stridently disagree! TD has maybe a .000005% effect on WHO the Falcons get in the draft. Pioli & the scouts have influence on who DQ considers. TD does paperwork and brings AB his coffee & newspaper – early.

      Reply
      1. Grits Blitz

        Flo – And, other than the co. line we’ve long ago been fed, I see you still believe TD is just DQ’s and AB’s flunky. Again, it boils down to opinion and not FACT. We are outsiders, not insiders, not telepathic, and are not meant (by design) to “really” know. If you want to believe DQ ignores TD’s input and influence (as a still young HC) at every turn, I understand that’s your choice. We’ll just never agree on this and we’ll never “really” know to what extent TD’s influence may reach.
        What I do believe we can agree upon is 1) we want the team to be the best it can be (like the old Army motto), 2) any effective/wise leader has and listens to many advisors (scouts, etc.), and 3)TD is still obviously allowed free reign to overpay for player salaries.
        Until he’s gone, the perpetual question must be is he helping more than hurting this team’s present and future success? (Of course, this question is likely moot since it appears he has the tenure of a U.S. Supreme Court Justice…at least until a new owner ultimately comes on the scene.)

        Reply
        1. Flo-Ri-Duh

          Grits – Don’t mind disagreement. You’re still my brother and you ain’t heavy. Here’s what I know – AB stated publicly more than once that DQ is in charge of who’s on the final 53 man roster. That being the case, why would AB allow TD to decide who to draft? I also know that TD’s arse was a frog’s hair away from being canned last year – as shown by the actual fact that he was in his final contract year but his contract was not extended before the season began. TD even acknowledged that he on notice to produce – or else.

          Reply
          1. Grits Blitz

            Flo – Once again…the point is… TD’s “influence” on DQ’s decisions, not his draft decision-making. (I agree with you it’s common knowledge DQ now must approve final player selections…of any kind.)
            The question will remain just how much advice does DQ listen to (over his other advisors like scouts, Pioli, etc. when TD’s mouth begins to move???
            By design, we do NOT know and weren’t meant to know. Just know for a fact I don’t trust Rasputin as his credibility is in shambles!

    2. Dewey

      Grits,

      Heard an interview with Quinn yesterday. It actually gave a good bit more insight to the draft process. Quinn admitted he loves evaluating talent, seeing how certain players will fit within the system. However, Dimitroff knows where each of these players “should” go in the draft. Translation: Quinn has picked the players he has an interest in, Dimitroff decides when/where they are selected. So, if Quinn really wants player “A”, and Dimitroff says, we’ll need to move up to get him, then I’m sure a discussion ensues about whether or not the cost to move up is worth it or not. So, although it does appear Dimitroff has taken a bit of a backseat in player evaluation, he is very much still involved in the draft strategy.

      Reply
      1. Grits Blitz

        Dewey – TOTALLY agree with your proposition.
        I further submit, though, there may be room to at least ponder TD’s reach, plausibly, goes much further than that – with DQ, FO, and, of
        course, AB. (Thought I read somewhere, more than once, DQ leans on TD’s … experience and expertise. Makes sense to me while he’s
        (o-j-t) learning to become an experience, successful HC…a full-time job in itself.

        Reply
          1. Flo-Ri-Duh

            TD’s “expertise”? Haven’t you seen the long-term past evaluations of the “success” TD achieved pre-DQ? Absolutely dismal. He’s had entire drafts that were a failure.

      2. Flo-Ri-Duh

        So Dimwitroff is a better judge of talent than DQ? I think DQ is perfectly capable of knowing when a player will get drafted. Peter Konz in the 2nd Rd pre-DQ is an example of not knowing what you are doing.

        Reply
        1. Grits Blitz

          Flo – Do you think for one moment I believe or support TD in ANY of his drafts of the past? Once again, I seem to recall DQ has stated something to the effect he has been relying. leaning upon, trusting (whatever term he actually used) Thomas’ experience/expertise. It’s not verbatim but feel free to look it up as DQ was clearly offering (at least it was clear to me) he was cooperatively dependent on TD’s FO, inside “advice”. To me, that also includes p-l-a-y-e-r-s so if you want to believe DQ automatically turns a deaf ear to Thomas when his lips start moving, uh, it is your ongoing right of opinion.

          Reply
  18. Mr B

    Don’t think we will got RT early; I think it is Sweitzer’s job to lose. I do think we will pick up as many as 2 lineman in later rounds for development and depth. I think we go LB/DE to pair with Beasley.

    Reply
  19. John Waynesworld

    From the NFL’s Ian Rapoport…

    Workout tidbit: Two weeks ago, #Falcons coach Dan Quinn put Mizzou’s Charles Harris & KState’s Jordan Willis through a workout SIDE BY SIDE

    Could be fake news. The Falcons worked out Willis at his mentor, Will Shield’s private facility. I can’t find any connection with Shields and Harris.

    One thing I did find is that both of their workouts were short. Harris was 40 minutes and from what I read, Willis’ was even shorter.

    Reply
  20. Dewey

    I’m still completely enamored with the idea of drafting FS Budda Baker at #31. I really feel this kid has All-Pro potential. I know it flies in the face of everything we need (oline/dline), but having just signed Trufant, Alford to long term deals, with Keeanu under contract for 4 more seasons and Baker added at FS for 5 more seasons, this would be a very enviable and tough backfield for many years to come.

    Reply
    1. Grits Blitz

      Dewey – Yes, we could do worse than BB at 31. Like many in the Cage, DQ may very well be purposely building the defense from the secondary as his first priority. Whatever works is great! I also believe the longer the trenches are ignored, the longer it will take to man-up and inflict/implement our will on other “trenchmen” in the league or perhaps another way to say it is…win championships.)

      Reply
  21. Dewey

    There are many ways a team can meet with potential draft candidates. All-star games, draft combine, local pro days, but the most telling signs a team is interested in a player is when they invite them to a private meeting or workout. Yes, teams draft players they only met at an all-star game, or sometimes one they haven’t met with at all, but the ones they have the most interest in, they will want to get to know better. The Falcons have had some type of contact with over 70 players so far (walterfootball). Of the 70+ players, the Falcons have met with 34 either privately or for some type of private workout. Using player rankings from NFL.com, here are the list of players, with their rankings, that would be in play for the Falcons at #31 (assuming of course their rankings are similar to NFL.com).

    #9-OJ Howard, TE
    #13-Hassan Reddick, ILB/OLB
    #18-Takkarist McKinley, DE/OLB
    #20-Forrest Lamp, OG
    #21-Derek Barnett, DE
    #27-Garett Bolles, OT
    #33-Charles Harris, OLB/DE
    #40-Budda Baker, FS
    #47-Tyus Bowser, OLB

    Reply
  22. Dewey

    Players we’re interested in, walterfootball, NFL.com, continued….here are the players we might target in round #2….

    #79-Jordan Willis, DE/OLB
    #82-Cameron Sutton, CB/KR
    #91-Tarell Basham, DE
    #97-Dalvin Tomlinson, DT
    #99-Tanoh Kpassagnon, DE

    Reply
  23. Flo-Ri-Duh

    Falcons open season in week one vs Du’ Bears and the Byrds are a 6 point favorite. (falcoholic.com) . Du’ Bears suck so the Falcons should be at least a 10 point fave.

    Falcons potential ammo for trades: Tevin Coleman (RB) – (bleacherreport.com)
    The article gives no opinion of what the Falcons could get for this former 3rd Rd pick.
    What do you think they could get in a trade.

    Reply
    1. Dewey

      No higher than a 4th rounder, then we need to use a pick for a replacement. It’s a wash. The only reason to draft a RB this draft is if you’re unsure about re-signing Freeman. If you trade Coleman, then it forces our hand to re-sign Freeman and it gives Freeman’s camp the leverage, thus making him more expensive. I say pass.

      Reply
      1. Flo-Ri-Duh

        Dewey – I’m passing also but he’s a proven playmaker in the NFL so I think they could get a late 2nd Rd pick for this young man who still has two years on his contract. I would like to see DQ move him to WR – opposite JJ and move Sanu to the slot more. Two guys with blazing speed on the outside are hard to cover.

        Reply
      2. Seminole Warrior

        Dewey, I respectfully disagree. Coleman is injury prone and RB depth is very problematic as we saw in the Super Bowl. There is value in this draft. RB can and should be addressed for that very reason. Stay tuned. I got one that I think you will like.

        Reply
      3. Grits Blitz

        Dewey – 100% agree with you – pass. Believe it would be a serious mistake to trade Tevin. I very much like his versatility and speed. Also believe every good team should have 2-3 quality RBs. Truth is we need both of them (at a reasonable price) and am convinced DQ understands that. As for a trade, if anybody, I wouldn’t mind seeing Ward on the block as another upgrade in his place would be smart. (Willing to take a chance on a UDFA, too. Thought last preseason offered some other possibilities for going in a different direction. Perhaps there’s a gem hiding in them thar hills this preseason!)

        Reply
  24. Dewey

    Potential draft picks, walterfootball, NFL.com, continued….3rd round
    #118-Derek Rivers, DE
    #119-Marlon Mack, RB
    #130-Isaac Asiata, OG
    #139-Kareem Hunt, RB

    Reply
    1. medallion

      Strangely, there are many over at Falcoholic and TalkFalcons who seem to think Rivers is a first rounder the Falcons should target at # 31 (or even trade up to get).
      When I read nonsense like that, my head somehow hears the theme music for the Twilight Zone.

      Reply
  25. Dewey

    Potential draft picks, walterfootball, NFL.com, 4th round targets…..
    #170-Aviant Collins, OT/OG
    #178-Eddie Jackson, FS
    #194-Jalen Reeves-Maybin, ILB/OLB
    #198-Julie’n Davenport, OT

    Reply
    1. Flo-Ri-Duh

      Dewey – I can go along with Aviante Collins (OT) who has played OT on the Left & right side but not OG (as far as I can tell). Would he be projected as our new ROG or our “swing-tackle”…. I think the later. Even though he’s projected as a 5th/6th Rd pick by nfl.com the Falcons would have to take him with their late 4th Rd pick.

      I think there are better options than Eddie Jackson who has played only one season at safety after a failed attempt at CB.

      Reeves-Maybin is coming off of an injury and I wouldn’t take him in the 4th. He’s also undersized. Maybe 7th Rd.

      Davenport OT) – I’m seeing him as a complete developmental project – maybe 5th Rd.

      Reply
  26. Dewey

    Potential draft picks, walterfootball, NFL.com, the rest of the draft….with only a 5th and 7th round pick left, and who knows what the draft board looks like now, I’m just going to list the rest of the players, in no particular order (actually it’s alphabetical by last name)…..

    Samson Ebukam, OLB
    Taylor Gadbois, OT
    Brian Hill, RB
    Cam Keizur, C
    Elijah McGuire, RB
    Taylor Reynolds, CB
    Jonnu Smith, TE
    Grover Stewart, DT
    Sam Tevi, OT
    Tanner Vallejo, LB
    Darrell Williams, OT

    Remember, these are just the players we’ve shown enough interest in to meet with privately somewhere, this doesn’t include the other 40+ players we’ve spoken with in public arenas.

    Reply
    1. Flo-Ri-Duh

      Dewey – I’m liking Samson Ebukam (OLB) the best among this group.
      McGuire (RB) is decent but if we extend Freeman I don’t see drafting a RB.
      Jonnu Smith (TE) would be an OK later Rd pick.
      Grover Stewart (DT) – maybe 7th Rd.
      Sam Tevi (OT) – maybe 7th Rd
      Tanner Vallejo (LB) – maybe 7th Rd
      Darrell Williams (OT), Gadbois (OT) – UDFA

      Reply
  27. John Waynesworld

    Dewey, you made me look, lol.

    NFL website pre-draft rankings in 2016:

    #51 Keanu Neal – picked #17
    #64 Deion Jones – picked #52
    #63 Austin Hooper – picked #81
    #200 De’Vondre Campbell – picked #115
    #450 Wes Schweitzer – picked #195
    #387 Devin Fuller – picked #238

    Big Wes…..what a reach!

    Reply
    1. Hamad Meander

      My repetitive biggest complaint about Falcon’s drafting – not value oriented. Over time, reaching for players vs. grabbing a higher graded player that drops dilutes your talent base. I hate it. Let the draft come to you and you will be ok. Panic and you will reach.

      Reply
  28. John Waynesworld

    The NFL’s Gil Brandt, who has worked 60 NFL drafts, said today “This is the worst offensive line draft I think we’ve ever seen”.

    Another NFL exec is quoted by Rotoworld that there are only 3 Tackles who could be starters sooner than later and rates them accordingly:

    1) Cam Robinson – “Might be a better Right Tackle”.
    2) Garrett Bolles – “Bolles is a nutty dude.”
    3) Ryan Ramczyk – “Ramczyk is a quiet guy who played at Stevens Point (Division III) for 2 years.”

    More reasons why Lamp may be picked up quickly in Round One.

    Reply
      1. John Waynesworld

        No my friend, my motives are much simpler. Only trying to convince myself to eliminate Mr. Lamp from my mock. I have deduced, as many here have, that Quinn has been interviewing potential prospect OLs ranked in literally every round that we have a pick. I’m trying to eliminate that option in Round One.

        Reply
  29. just "little ole" me

    Here’s a question for all the UGA fans. If Freeman is not resigned how many of you would want to draft Chubb in the first round of the 2018 draft?

    Reply
    1. Flo-Ri-Duh

      jlom – You won’t find a bigger Dawg fan on here than me and I love the talent and man that Chubb is but I’m not drafting him in the 1st Rd…. and maybe not draft any RB in the 1st Rd with the current Falcons’ roster. Right now, based on last years’ work, he’s a 3rd Rd pick. The again the OL really wasn’t very good last year and I’m not sure it will be better this year – with three new starters and two OG’s starting at OT. I’m just moving Tevin Coleman up to #1 RB and Terron Ward to #2 – and drafting a RB in the 3rd/4th Rd.

      Reply
      1. Seminole Warrior

        Got you a terrific RB in my annual mock draft. Stay tuned. Great value on the OL as well given the limited picks we have.

        I think the team may have secured, if our board was the official one, starters in rounds one through three with ease as well as a draft class that could COMPLETELY make the team given current needs.

        Reply
        1. just "little ole" me

          It wouldn’t happen to be the kid out of GA Southern? I really like him and for some reason he doesn’t seem to be getting any love.

          Reply
        1. just "little ole" me

          Michel looked much better than Chubb did last year. It’s the second year after an ACL injury that he should be 100% recovered. Looking forward to seeing if he returns to the preinjury player he was!

          Reply
    1. Flo-Ri-Duh

      SW – I was just thinking today that your forecast should have come out by now – but as long as we get it before the draft (and we always have) all is good. Thanks for the intensive research and product that you are sure to deliver. Looking forward to it.

      Reply
  30. Flo-Ri-Duh

    On an unrelated subject to football, is anyone on here familiar with solar farms? I read where you can lease your land out to companies that will put solar panels on it to produce energy that is sold to guys like Georgia Power. I have actually seen a couple of these solar farms in south Georgia.

    Reply
    1. Seminole Warrior

      Flo

      The Southern Company (actually a subsidiary called Southern Power) has built several large ones in Taylor County. It appears that there is a major push in that area on the part of the company. I certainly would be interested in who it is performing; also would like to know if it is a worthwhile stock to invest in (second retirement is not that far off).

      Reply
    2. just "little ole" me

      Georgia Power contacted my parents who have 40 acres in Northeast GA about putting a solar farm on part of their acreage. Don’t quote me, but I think they were offering between 10k and 20k per year. I am not sure how much of the acreage they wanted to use.

      Reply
  31. JJ

    Taylor Gabriel has inked a deal for the 2017 season.

    According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, the Atlanta Falcons wide receiver has signed his restricted free agent (RFA) tender. It’s a one-year deal that will pay out $2.746 million for his services in 2017.

    Follow
    Ian Rapoport ✔ @RapSheet
    #Falcons WR Taylor Gabriel has signed his RFA tender, one worth a second round pick. It pays him roughly $2.8M in 2017.
    1:52 PM – 22 Apr 2017
    75 75 Retweets 174 174 likes
    The Falcons placed the second-round RFA tender on Gabriel earlier this offseason…

    Reply

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